With the world in transition, though there is no great danger of any immediate conflagration, the contradictions worldwide are consolidating into blocs…. US, China/Russia primarily. Most countries are aligning with one or the other or in the process of doing so. India is, at present running with the hares and hunting with the hounds trying to balance…. But not for long; it is sure to capitulate to the US camp as the bulk of foreign investments come from the West. In fact the West is likely to use India as its front paw in its inevitable conflict with China, using our people as cannon fodder while the arms contractors and politician will get paid handsomely for carrying out its dirty work. The Indian people should make sure to not fall into this trap – whether now or at any future date. It should not act as a pawn for the US, Russia or any other big power in their geo-political conflicts, but should focus on its own indigenous development.
The trouble is India relies heavily on foreign investments like FDIs and FIIs. India recorded a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow of Rs. 6,93,864.5 crore (US$ 81.04 billion) in FY25. If one calculates the return on the FDI at a conservative rate of 10% (the actual figure would be much higher as money is extracted in varied forms) that would be a massive drain from our country of about Rs. 70, 000 crore on returns to these foreign sharks exhausting most of our foreign exchange stock. Also, politically this dependency makes us prone to be dictated to by these imperialists and at their mercy.
In addition, at end-March 2025, India’s external debt was placed at a gigantic US$ 736.3 billion, an increase of US$ 67.5 billion over its level at end-March 2024. The external debt to GDP ratio increased to 19.1 per cent at end-March 2025 from 18.5 per cent at end-March 2024. (The Print 27 June, 2025). This is an increase of 10% in the last year. Such massive foreign dependence impinges on India’s sovereignty and results in huge amounts of wealth being drained out of our country. It is in fact the form of neo-colonialism today, replacing the old forms of direct colonial rule earlier.
US dollar-denominated debt remained the largest component of India’s external debt with a share of 54.2 per cent at March-end 2025. No wonder it is the West that dictates much of India’s foreign policies. But India should not fall prey to any anti-China schemes by the West and act in its self-interest and not act as a tool of any foreign power.
No doubt the future is going to see conflict between the West and China as the latter’s growth is at a huge rate of over 5% compared to a world average of less than 3%; and the developed economies even more sluggish at just over 1%. Besides the China’s is a $ 20 trillion economy to the US’s 30 trillion – compare this to India’s $ 4 trillion and sluggish growth. On the other hand, Japan’s GDP fell from $ 6 trillion in 2011 to $ 4 trillion today. Besides China’s economy is slim and trim unlike the US which spends gigantic sums maintaining their 750 military installations in more than 80 countries as of 2025.
The IMF predicts world economic growth rates at about 3% this year which will remain the same for the next two years. In other words, there are no signs of a recession in the near future. The tactics of the working class will have to be worked out accordingly. It would be a time for silently building strength to be utilised at a later date when the crisis hits. Ofcourse the main target will remain US imperialism and its agents worldwide, as the chief enemy of the worlds’ people and the main source of war.
Only with such systematic preparatory work can we make use of a situation that will develop in the future; or else we will get caught unawares; as the crisis will come with fascist repression. Working class organisations need to prepare themselves in such a way that their full strength should not get exposed – whether in factories, slums or amongst students or any other sections of the oppressed masses. For this varied form can be used.
These options are open to the resistant people, including utilizing whatever democratic opportunities whatever are there, and silently preparing for opportunities.
We see wherever the people resist the rulers use the most ruthless methods against its own people – methods normally used against a foreign country. Take the military operations in Chhattisgarh, where the attacks to defend mining concessions take a military form.
The much-promoted surrender of Sonu, a top leader of the Maoist party is only the tip of the iceberg. Joining the mainstream in their terminology means playing by their rules; making the people sitting ducks for the mining robber barons and their political masters.
Look even at past history, how they have devastated the region extracting its rich mineral deposits of iron ore and bauxite. Not only are the tribal labour paid a pittance, the environment has been totally destroyed – rivers are blood red with pollution, ground water has been destroyed; and surface soil unusable for crops. The entire landscape is being desertified with little or no accountability. And most of their mining mafia don’t declare their gigantic profits; sharing a part of their loot with politicians and the bureaucracy thereby corrupting the body politics of the entire country – with many having a share in the loot.
Any, even a whiff of resistance is crushed with an iron fist; branding it anti-national. But who are the real anti-national, one would really like to know?
Kobad Ghandy
October 23, 2025
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