Peter M
Based on an article in Norwegian by Peter M
A huge funeral procession was held Saturday, June 28 2025, in Tehran for victims of the latest Israeli attack on Iran. The funeral in capital Tehran for 60 nuclear scientists, military commanders and civilians martyred in Israeli strikes began at 8:00 am (0430 GMT) in Enqelab Square. According to the BBC (June 19 2025) It started when Israel attacked nuclear and military sites in Iran, and then Iran retaliated with aerial attacks targeting Israel. More than 220 people have been killed in Israeli strikes so far, according to Iran’s health ministry, while Israel says Iranian attacks have killed 24 people.
TEHRAN SHOWS OFF NEW MISSILES
On that Saturday, Iran officially withdrew from the nuclear deal that was signed in 2015: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was concluded in 2015 with the USA, EU-3 (UK, France, Germany), with Russia and China in tow. Anyhow the deal had been already shot in the back, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 with tirades of abuse against it.
But the deal got a shot in the arm with the return of rival, President Barack Hussein Obama, when the US and EU3 (after the UK pulled out) secured a majority in the UN Security Council. But this was not sustained, with the reintroduction of UN sanctions against Iran, that had been lifted when the agreement was ratified
In August this year, the EU3 agreed to implement the so-called snapback mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions if Tehran did not enter into negotiations with the United States – in effect, giving in to US demands. Till then, for a long time, the three European great powers had been de facto divided.
12 – DAY WAR
An intense 12 day conflict between Israel and Iran erupted on June 13, 2025, after Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing key nuclear scientists and military commanders.
Over 200 Israeli fighter jets hit more than 100 nuclear and military facilities along with residential neighbourhoods across Iran.
Iran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles against Israeli cities. In the days that followed, Israel and Iran traded missiles as casualties mounted on both sides.
The “Twelve-Day War” came to a disastrous end when Trump deployed US B-2 bombers against the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan during Operation Midnight Hammer.
Meanwhile Iran is repairing the damage to its missile defences which Israel struck during the “Twelve-Day War”, and is improving its medium-range missiles with modern technology. Iran’s missile program could be the next target in a new war with Israel and the United States.
IRAN ECONOMY SEVERE IMPACT & INDIAN SERVILITY TO WEST
Iran’s economy is now facing dire straits due to UN sanctions and US secondary sanctions that will impact international financial systems. For many countries in the region, however, Iran is too big to fall. According to FocusEconomics Iran’s GDP declined by 1% in 2024 with a nominal GDP of USD 434 billion. It had a GDP per capita of $ 4,633 compared to the global average of $ 10,589. But compare this with India’s per capita GDP of a mere $ 2,700.
So, the economy is not as bad as made out even with US sanctions. While Russia and Chinese trade continue with Iran; India’s trade with Iran has contracted sharply—by 87 percent—since the reimposition of US sanctions in 2019, falling to $2.3 billion in 2024 from $17.6 billion in 2019.
India has had longstanding trade relations with Iran, especially in oil. However, following previous rounds of US sanctions in 2019, India significantly reduced its imports from the country. US sanctioned Indian companies doing trade with Iran.
US,using gunboat diplomacy, are forcing countries to bow to their dictates. While many other countries defend their sovereign rights, India’s oil trade with Iran has shifted dramatically over the past two decades, largely due to global politics and US sanctions. Between 2006–07 and 2018–19, Iran was one of India’s top oil suppliers. At its peak in the oil trade with India in 2007-08, Iran had a share of 13 per cent in India’s crude oil imports. In 2018–19, imports from Iran hit $12.3 billion, nearly nine per cent of India’s total oil imports at the time. It is now nearly down to zero bowing to US pressure. Inspte of much govt nationalist chest thumping it meekly fell prey to US arm twisting, devoid of any self-respect.
On the other hand, while India succumbed, China made full use of the situation and got the bulk of its oil from Iran. In 2023, Iran exported a whopping 90 per cent of its oil to China. But this wasn’t always the case. In 2017, just 25 per cent of Iran’s oil exports went to China. Iran crude sold at $58 to the barrel compared to India purchasing Russian crude at $62 to a barrel and even more on the international market. So, we are willing to act against our own national interests to please the West.
IRAN’S NEW DIPLOMACY
The latest diplomatic effort by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during the high-level week at the opening of the UN session did not reach any conclusion. Only four countries voted – EU3 and the USA participated in the vote, that was not covered by any veto right: Russia, China, Algeria and Pakistan (Iran’s neighbour to the southeast where the province of Sistan-Baluchistan in Iran, borders the restive Baluchistan province of Pakistan) voted to stop the sanctions from being reintroduced. Nine UNSC members voted against sanctions relief – the United States, Britain, France, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Denmark, Greece, Panama, and Somalia, according to Iran’s official IRNA news agency. Guyana and South Korea abstained. Meanwhile, New Delhi has distanced itself from a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) statement denouncing Israel’s attacks on Iran. India is buckling under US pressure instead of looking after the country’s interests. Sad. India could instead have used the opportunity to buy cheap oil from Iran.
Thus, the UN’s binding snapback sanctions will enter into force before October 18. It was the deadline to reinstate it, under UN Resolution 2231. (For all new decisions, the veto power applies to the five countries: USA, UK and France on one side; China and Russia on the other.)
On the same day, Tehran made its obvious decision: Iran is withdrawing from the agreement: it cannot be repaired when EUROPE refuses to fight for it and instead
allows itself to be dictated to by Washington. First, by not protesting loudly, then by not pushing President Joe Biden to resume real negotiations to get the deal which was entered into when he was vice president under Barack Obama (Trump tore up the deal in May 2018).
The decision was delivered to the UN in New York on Saturday with the message that Tehran no longer feels bound by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). From now on, “all provisions, including restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program and the associated mechanisms, are repealed,” the cover letter from Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tehran, reports The Guardian.
It was the end of ten years of hopes that grew out of the agreement signed in Vienna on July 14, 2015. Hopes spread across the Persian Gulf to the Gulf States, but were met with fury and condemnation in Israel and its head of government, who was Benjamin Netanyahu – in his longest continuous term in office. It lasted from March 31, 2009 until it terminated on June 13, 2021 – before he took office again December 29, 2022 after wearing out his rival, Naftali.
RIGHT WING ISRAELI GANGS
It is basically right wing gangs who run Isreal: like, One Bennett, from the ethno-nationalist secular Yamina (Towards the Right) and Yaïr Lapid from the pro-business liberal and secular middle-class party Yesh, Atid (There is a future); as also, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who are part of a rotating leadership.
The United Right is an Israeli political alliance of right-wing to far-right parties formed by the New Right and the Union of Right-Wing Parties. The parties agreed to unite in an effort to surpass the electoral threshold needed to win seats in the Knesset. Following the failure to pass the threshold in the April 2019 election, New Right leader Naftali Bennett agreed to give the leadership of the new party to Ayelet Shaked, which made the new union even more reactionary, given his belief that male Orthodox political leaders would never recognize the leadership of a secular woman. Naftali Bennett, an ultra-nationalist, is an Israeli high-tech entrepreneur, who served as Prime Minister in 2020-21 and later led the religious right-wing Home Party.
The United Right won seven seats in the September 2019 election.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressured Naftali Bennett to form a union with the far-right parties to increase the chance they would exceed the electoral threshold in March 2020. Bennett, however, decided to run a joint platfom – Yamina (also far right) – with his Hayamin Hehadash Party and the National Union Party without the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit Party. Shaked was replaced by Bennett as leader of the Yamina Alliance in Jan 2020. They had previously led the New Right Party.
In 2021, Bezalel Smotrich decided to pull his Religious Zionism Party out of the union. This is yet another ultra-right nationalist party, promoting orthodox Jewish beliefs, expanding settlements and establishing a Zionist homeland. The right wing partes seem to dominate Israeli politics till today.
The Zionist state has been propped up by the US. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign aid: up to February 2022, the U.S. had provided Israel US$150 billion (non-inflation-adjusted) in assistance. The United States’ first free trade agreement was with Israel, in 1985. In 1999, the U.S. government signed a commitment to provide Israel with at least US$2.7 billion in military aid annually for ten years; in 2009 it was raised to $3 billion; and in 2019 raised to a minimum of US$3.8 billion. Since 1972, the U.S. has also extended loan guarantees to Israel to assist with housing shortages, absorption of new Jewish immigrants and economic recovery. The US pumps $ 4 billion into Isreal yearly to keep it afloat – acting as a gendarme in the middle east against restive Arab nations and Iran. These funds come from the rich Jewish community in the US who are he main promoters of Zionist (the equivalence to Hindutva) philosophy.
The US -Israeli alliance main target is Iran. Yet Iran stands firm not bowing to their threats. Though Russia’s military relationship with Iran is closer than China’s, but this has not made Russia to substantively come to Iran’s defence during the current crisis. Putin, after all, has warm ties with Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Traditionally Russia has maintained good ties given that most of the Israeli population comprised migrant jews from Russia. But post 2022 relations deteriorated with Russia has been tilting towards Iran and Palestine. In the regional conflict Russia backed Hamas. In the Oct 7 2023 attack it condemned both sides and has growing relations with Hamas. It backs the triangle of Hamas, Iran and Houthis – providing them with military hardware. China too had a good relation with Isreal for 3 decades built on trade and technology; but this too got strained after the attack on Gaza in Oct 2923. It shifted from a position of neutrality to that of pro-Palestine. Now it has condemned Isreal as aggressor after its attack on Palestine.
Iran will “firmly express its commitment to diplomacy,” it said, in a note from Tehran. The denunciation of the UN Security Council resolution 2231 will not affect Tehran’s fundamental obligations under the 2015 nuclear agreement, including the promise not to pursue nuclear weapons Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday, according to the Chinese news agency Xinhua.
However, he emphasized at the weekly press conference that Iran’s rights to enrich uranium and peaceful nuclear activities will continue. It is under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that Iran still holds on, despite its criticism of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, which Tehran believes has not stood up to the USA and E(U)-3.
This indicates that Tehran stands by its decision not to break out of the NPT from 1968, as North Korea officially did on January 11, 2003. It came ten years after Pyongyang announced it would leave the NPT, but gave in for diplomatic pressure. In 2002, tensions rose again because the IAEA was suspicious of a secret uranium enrichment program which led to international inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) being expelled.
The underlying reason, however, was that Pyongyang believed that the US President Bill Clinton and his Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had breached their obligations in the agreement they had entered into to supply North Korea with civilian nuclear technology. During the visit of North Koreaeneral Jo Myong-rok in Washington, and Albright’s return visit to Pyongyang in October 2000 to discuss the North Korean ballistic missile program and technology transfer; he United States interrupted the process in November of that year.
TEHRAN IN A PINCH
Iran now finds itself in a similar position as North Korea, in the relationship between the NPT regime, the IAEA and Trump’s USA. Trump, too has portrayed North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, racially; referring to him as the “Little Rocket Man”, as Clinton had with his father, Kim Jong-II (He ruled from October 1997 until his death on December 17, 2011)
The big difference is Israel’s belligerent relationship with Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program – where Israel received bombastic US support during President Trump – and that Tehran is firm on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fatwa (edict/prohibition) against nuclear weapons, in contrast to Pyongyang which allegedly secured themselves against being attacked by producing nuclear weapons of their own.
The IAEA determined that Iran was fully complying with its obligations under under the JCPOA until 2019. Since then, Tehran has begun to go beyond the agreement on the level of enrichment of uranium, but still remained well below the degree for weapons production. Since then there has been back and forth between Tehran and Vienna with regard to inspections, when and where, characterized by conflicts with the IAEA’s last two directors general, pro-American Yukiya Amano (2009-19) and his Argentine successor Rafael Mariano Grossi.
Tehran challenged the IAEA on the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 by reducing its obligations under the agreement. The IAEA failed miserably because the UN organization does not have the support of Europe and because Russia and China did not have the political clout to challenge the USA and EUROPE. Besides, they, as well as other countries, were threatened by US secondary sanctions in their economic relations with Iran, including the purchase of oil.
US secondary sanctions have been in effect since May 2018 and remain in place till today. Now the bindings to UN sanctions that were imposed on the E3 also apply; restored through the “snapback” process, that allows for quick and automatic reinstatement of all UN sanctions from the tenth anniversary on 18 October. ( The Guardian reported).
The termination of the resolution on October 18 was “in full accordance with its express provisions,” Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed in his letter to the UN Portuguese Secretary-General António Guterres and the President of the Security Council, currently Russia’s UN Ambassador, veteran Vasily Nebenzia. All restrictions have now ceased and thus has the Security Council’s involvement in Tehran’s peaceful nuclear program ceased. He states and believes that Iran has “implemented the JCPOA in good faith and with full precision”, while the US “grossly violated international law” by withdrawing back in 2018 and reimposing unilateral sanctions. E3, on the other hand “did not fulfil its obligations and instead introduced additional illegal measures” with reference to E3’s decision to activate the “snapback” mechanism in August, which Araghchi describes as “unilateral and arbitrary” and without “any legal, procedural or political basis”.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov believes that Tehran entered into “a legal trap” when they accepted the snapback mechanism in the JPCOA agreement in 2015 before the fatal vote in the UN Security Council.
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot and Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul writes in a joint statement that they continues to seek “a new diplomatic solution to ensure that Iran never acquire nuclear weapons” through a “comprehensive, lasting and verifiable agreement”.
The EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kajsa Kallas, former Prime Minister of Estonia, arrogantly urges Tehran that the sanctions “must not be the end of diplomacy” and that “a sustainable solution to the Iranian nuclear issue can only be achieved through negotiations.”
Tehran has responded to Trump – because they see no reason to negotiate with the EU or E-3, according to Araghchi – that they are open to diplomacy, but exclusively on terms of guarantees to not to be subjected to military attacks again, as happened during the last negotiations.
TRUMP WANTS TO BE A BIG BROTHER
It is still impossible to get a verified overview of how severe the damage is to the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan received from the B-2 bombers on June 22 of this year.
Satellite images show that several of the entrances to the underground complexes have collapsed, but provide no insight into the internal damaged. How many centrifuges were destroyed? Or other equipment for enriching uranium?
There is also no published intelligence on whether or where much of the centrifuges and equipment that Iran was able to secure before Israel attacked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel war
Trump has, not surprisingly, been most enthusiastic in his boys’ room overflowing descriptions of how Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program is virtually obliterated. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is far more reserved, even though he pretended tp be ecstatic. He got carried away when Trump was invited to his mutual and groundbreaking tribute in the Knesset – in the meeting between two war criminals and brothers in arms to mark the release of the Israeli prisoners in mid-October 2025.
Yet Netanyahu’s body language, though a little embarrassed – and not least belligerent – said that he is not yet finished with Iran. The question that really rises is whether Iran is largely a question between the United States and Israel, and not least between Trump and Netanyahu – the later being more complicated and inflamed than they reveal; as the common goal being of defeating Iran militarily and possibly promoting regime change in Tehran.
Netanyahu thinks linearly, from Jerusalem to Tehran. Trump “thinks” in circles that encompass the Arab capitalist countries that have entered in Brics+ or are considering doing so. This has led Trump to do something that no other American president has done to an Israeli head of government since President George HW Bush (and not least his secretary of State James Baker III) – ie. demanding that Prime Minister Yitzhak Jezernitsky Shamir attend the Madrid Conference after Gulf War 1 in 1991. Bush threatened at that time to withhold the United States’ annual military aid io Isreal – which currently stands at $3.49 billion annually – if the former Lehi/Stern terrorist leader, who was behind the Deir Yassin massacre of over a hundred Palestinians during the Nakba in 1948, did not appear in the Spanish capital at the scheduled time on October 30th.
(The conflict in 1948, known as the Kakbach (catastrophe) claimed 7 akh people. The 1948 war gave rise to the state of Isreal and gave the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Jordan and Egypt. On Nov 29 1944 after decades of tension between Arabs and Jews the UNGA (resolution 181) called for the partition of Palestine into Arab and Jewish settlements. This became the legal basis for the state of Isreal.
With the Gaza plan, Trump has given a clear signal that he wants control over the region to create a “Riviera in the middle east”: He forced Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire, to get the remaining Israeli prisoners released, while the Knesset speech gave Netanyahu full credit for Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, the latest offensive against Gaza City, had led to Hamas having “given up” with a “we were right”. This was a bayonet in the side of Israel’s Chief of Defence Eyal Zamir, who was one of the many within Israel’s armed forces and intelligence, active and retired, who opposed the offensive.
Trump made it clear that he would not accept any annexation of all or part of the West Bank, which was announced as applicable by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar when the government decided to develop the E1 area (East-1) in August. The twelve square kilometre E1 (Mevaseret Adumim) lies between the border with East Jerusalem and towards it the large colony of Ma’ale Adumim, on the ridge where the main road from Jerusalem and Ramallah plunge sharply down towards Jericho in the Jordan Valley and The Dead Sea.
Trump’s approach is more extensive. He didn’t want an Israeli annexation of The West Bank as it would disrupt the Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain which was signed in September 2020, under the auspices by Trump. Both Gulf states set as a condition that Israel does not annexes the West Bank.
Operation Gideon Chariot was launched on May 4 2025 to take control fhte Gaza Strip. As of July 2025 the IDF SAID IT HAD CONTROL OF 65% OF GAZA. But Hamas was fighting back with hostages still in its control. On August 29 Isreal launched Operation Gideon Chariot II to take Gaza city. Hamas responded with guerrilla attacks. The Palestinian ar has so far seen 400 killed and 1000 injured. On the other hand only 48 Israeli soldiers have been killed. These are the official figures the reality would be much worse.
Trump agreed that the development of E1 will cement the division of The West Bank in two, between north and south, thus killing “the Palestinian state”, as both Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have preached. Based on how Netanyahu has acted in the past, he is probably comfortable with not rushing so as not to provoke more reactions from Western allies who have not taken concrete measures against the development announcement of E1 even though they promote the “two-state solution”.
USA, ISRAEL, IRAN
In his hour-long, volcanic and tumultuous rant in the Knesset, Trump came with a surprising invitation to Tehran that fell like a bomb in the Israeli assembly in its most triumphant moment – It would be great if we made a peace treaty with them. – I think they will, Trump nodded in enjoying self-satisfaction with his smitten smiles to the right and left. The goal is to stop the theocratic regimes from funding militant proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah and “finally recognize Israel’s right to exist.”
The hollow proposal met with a confused, mute echo in the Knesset, but anger min Tehran is about 1,850 kilometres away, within range of ballistic missiles. Tehran declined Trump’s invitation to attend the photoshop meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh on the same day.
The meeting brought together Western leaders who were praised for not having done anything to stop Israel’s genocidal war and to dance around The Golden Calf – to a comment on NRK by former ambassador Kåre Aas to The US, Israel who claimed that everything now depended on Hamas being disarmed.
Iran has not forgotten, neither the “Twelve-Day War” nor the drone killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards Foreign Affairs Department, Qods Force, outside Baghdad airport in January 2020 when he was tasked with initiating a reconciliation agreement with Saudi Arabia as China’s diplomacy (in March 2023).
It happened while the United States was negotiating with Saudi Arabia to enter into the Abraham Accord with Israel, during Trump’s first presidency. The Abraham Accords, where Arab countries normalize relations with Israel is the central and most lucrative bottom line in the Trump and the tech giants’ order book.
PREPARED FOR NEW ATTACKS
“Although we favour diplomatic engagement, neither President Pezeshkian nor I engage with counterparts who have attacked it the Iranian people and continues to threaten and sanction us,” wrote Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, on social media explaining the refusal at the invitation to Sharm el-Sheikh. There is also a strong suspicion that Israel instead wants to pressure the US to give a green light for new attacks.
– One can see triumphalism in Trump who wants to be mediator and really wants to open a dialogue. But we’ve been down that road before, and it ended in the June War, says Nader Hashemi, professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, to The Guardian.
– The logical conclusion of the summer war and the American bombing from Tehran’s perspective is that the United States cannot be trusted – can’t trust Trump. He’s completely unpredictable. The only safe way forward to ensure Iran’s national security is to try to strengthen its own military capacity, which means air defence, missiles, and then figure out how Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon without being attacked again, he says.
It will happen sooner rather than later, he concludes. Trump’s fabrication about “a peace triangle between the US, Israel and Iran” is totally illusory, with Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (now 86 years old), and his hardline faction in the Guardian Council. He took over from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who laid the line of resistance to US foreign policy in the Middle East and Israel’s legitimacy as a Zionist state.
– It will not change as long as Khamenei is alive, no matter if more years of protests against the theocratic regime have weakened it in people’s eyes, says Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University of California. But if the intention behind the invitation was to create division among the clergy, it has failed. There was never any interest of Pezeshkian or Araghchi to show up in the tourist and conference city Sharm el Sheikh.
It is more likely in the short term that tensions will escalate again, believes Sina Toossi, analyst at the Center for International Policy, because “The dominant view in the Trump administration is that Iran is weakened” and believes that the US can “get much more from them than just a nuclear deal”; such as “forcing a capitulation – which implies recognition of Israel” and “ending Iran’s role in the region” and “limiting its missile program.” Much of this is wishful thinking.
Iran, in turn, will develop its missile defence and missile capabilities and strengthen relations with China and Russia, Brics+ countries and neighbouring countries in West, Central and South Asia. Given that Russia and Iran havea deepening strategic partnership wih military, political and economic cooperation – whicj oncludes drones, tanks and nuclear power; also China and iran have a “comprehensive strategic partnership” acting as Iran’s primary economic life-line, also China has massive investments in Iran’s infrastructure and energy sectors with large scale purchases of Iran oil and growing military and intelligence cooperation with a 25 year pact signed in 2021 . in addition China conducts expensive trade with Iran by passing the sanctions regulations. — iran is likely to be an important focal point of contention between the West and the East.
ROCKETS THROUGH THE SHIELD
What guidelines apply between Trump and Netanyahu with regard to Iran?
Iran is a target that has strong support both in the Knesset and on Capitol Hill in Washington and relatively speaking in public opinion, especially in Israel where
Iran is seen as the biggest threat to the country. That does not apply to only the nuclear weapons program that both countries claim Tehran has – without any proof – that also applies to the rocket program.
The two missile duels between Israel and Iran last year showed that Israel’s missile shield is not without holes. The first occurred in April when an Israeli airstrikes killed several Iranian officers when they attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. The second in October when Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in connection with the funeral of President Ebrahim Raisi in July and then Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the prominent commander of the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran), Abbas Nilforoushan, in Beirut in Lebanon in September
On both occasions, Tehran notified Israel and the United States of when it would respond with a limited number of missiles, not in the thousands like Tehran sitting on. Still, some went through the Iron Dome. Several went through under Twelve-Day War and hit residential areas in Tel Aviv. Hypersonic missiles and drone attacks by the Houthi movement in Yemen have also hit Israel, recently against a hotel in the port city of Eilat, at the very heart of the Gulf of Aqaba, which has long been closed to commercial activity.
The Russian-made S-300 defensive missile system was the target of the Israeli rocket attacks. Several batteries were hit, Israel claimed, which Tehran rejected. During the Twelve Day War, large parts of the air defences were quickly deployed so that Israel controlled the airspace. The US and Israel is unlikely to put up with it and is watching to see if Russia will sell the upgraded S-400 if Tehran requests it.
Iran and Russia, through the state nuclear power company Rosatom, have just signed a major contract for the construction of a new reactor with a capacity of 5GW (gigawatts) in Sirik in Hormozgan in the southern part of Iran, on the Straits of Hormuz, opposite the Emirates and Oman.
The contract is worth $25 billion. Rosatom and Tehran have signed a letter of intent for the construction of an estimated eight new power plants by 2040. They should be able to produce 20 GW.
SHOWING OFF ROCKETS
On Saturday, the Revolutionary Guard presented upgraded versions of the ballistic missiles Emad and Qadr on two missile bases along with renovated launch pads that were damaged during the “Twelve Day War” in June, the state-run IRIB TV showed. The program was to show that the aviation response is working to “restore readiness and improve survivability after Israel’s airstrikes,” reports the independent American website The Media Line covering the Middle East.
Ghadr/Qadr (“Intensity”) is an Iranian medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 1800-2000 kilometers. The Revolutionary Guard reported on June 23 that a Qadr-H missile, with an estimated range of 1,650 kilometers, had been used for the first time against Israel. On November 6, 2023, it fired from Ansarallah in Yemen of a Ghadr-110 against Israel. It was shot down by The Arrow 3 system while still outside the atmosphere, now classified as “the first case of combat in space in the history of mankind,” according to Australia’s Sydney Morning Herald.
Emad (“Pillar”) is another medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), with a range of 1700 kilometres, an offshoot of the Shahab-3, which was first shown in October 2015, around the same time as the nuclear deal was ratified. Emad has a more advanced command and control system, making it Iran’s first ballistic missile that is precision controlled.
Shahab (“Meteor”) is based on the North Korean Nodong-1/A and Nodong-B the missiles.
Ghadr has now been equipped with electronic warfare equipment to protect the missiles from jamming. Emad has undergone more unspecified updates for the same purpose, according to IRIB. In the report, a high-ranking commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ air defence, who was not named for security reasons, according to The Media Line, that The force’s missile power “is increasing every hour.” The TV channel reported that recently upgraded missiles are mounted on operational launch pads.
Emad and Qadr are part of the medium-range arsenal that Tehran says is designed for defence and conventional deterrence.
The June attack was the most direct confrontation between Israel and Iran until the ceasefire between Israel and Iran took place from June 24, after The US Midnight Hammer struck. Trump therefore takes credit for stopping an escalation into a major regional conflict which he adds to his portfolio with the inscription Nobel Peace Prize. Both have announced that they will respond faster to attacks next time.
Iran’s ballistic program has long been limited by UN measures, but is now put out of action because the nuclear agreement is dead. That makes the missile program even more central to Tehran’s deterrence strategy and regional position and could trigger another arms race in West Asia, especially in the Gulf States where several of the world’s largest arms customers are found. The Revolutionary Guard clearly wishes that the material losses from the “Twelve Days War” be repaired with the introduction of countermeasures against electronic interference.
PEOPLE AND SANCTIONS
The nuclear deal formally expired on October 18, but it has gradually been put into effect; out of action since Nobel Peace Prize hopeful Trump undermined it in May 2018. People in Iran have noticed this in their everyday lives. There is unrest among the Believers flocking to pray at the Friday Mosque (Jameh) Imam Khoneini Mosalla in Tehran, the chaotic, people-conglomerate “megavillage”.
Tehran with an estimated ten million inhabitants, of which just over two million, Kurds and more Azerbaijanis than in any other city in the world, except for Azerbaijan’s capital Baku.
There is a widespread perception in the population, among regime supporters, that just as believers and in the opposition, that Iran is treated differently than other countries because Iran stands up to Israel and because of Tehran’s foreign policy. It is also widely believed that it was the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad that was behind the helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi, not bad weather.
Iran is now facing an economic collapse where more Iranians are slipping into poverty. It will intensify the social crises. It is no longer dependent of whether IAEA inspectors are allowed into the country or not. No country has been subject to such extensive sanctions from several quarters for such a long time like Iran, not even Cuba which has no oil or other sought-after natural resources other than nickel.
Shirin Ebadi, the lawyer and winner of the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize, has written on Instagram that the consequences of the sanctions will be “far-reaching” more dangerous than war” for Iran. The value of the national currency, the rial, will fall further, the infrastructure will fail due to lack of spare parts as a result of the entire nuclear program being declared illegal and Iran becomes subject to Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
Chapter 7 covers the UN’s means of force to maintain peace and security, and gives the Security Council the authority to take coercive measures when it considered necessary. It gives the UN the right to intervene in matters that would otherwise would fall under the internal jurisdiction of a State, provided that it is to maintain international peace and security.
This means, among other things, that Iran’s economy will remain outside the international financial systems.
The sanctions have lasted for over 40 years. Iran has adapted to standing alone. Today, there are major international openings such as UN sanctions and the US
secondary sanctions are trying to close it again. But the new efforts to achieve a “two-state solution” in Palestine and normalization between Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries will be able to engage Iran both with regard to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Council, GCC) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
For these people, Iran is too big to fall, and several have had their eyes opened for what Israel is capable of and that there are now also others besides the USA on its international agenda.
Yet Iran now finds itself in a state of neither war nor peace. But West Asia will not be able to rest in peace as long as Isreal continue s to exist. The oppressed people and countries of the world need to rally around Iran unlike India where though duplicity it depends on Arab oil while maintaining close relations with Isreal. India and Isreal have developed close relations in defence, technology and cyber security. Also Israel is a major supplier of military equipment and intelligence sharing with the dangerous Mossad playing a crucial role. This is not surprising as Zionism and Hindutva have many similarities.
The progressive people and countries of the world need to boycott such fascist countries and break all relations with them.
